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Prediction for CME (2022-12-30T16:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-12-30T16:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23070/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the SW in STEREO Ahead along the SW streamer during a SOHO data gap. Likely associated with ejecta following an M1.4-class flare from AR13176. A distinct EUV wave is visible in GOES SUVI 195 starting around 2022-12-30T15:28Z to the S/SW of the eruption and continues to spread with some deflection to the south, likely due to a nearby coronal hole. There is also some dimming seen to the SW of the eruption that may have been caused by an earlier eruption starting around 2022-12-30T11:30Z which could be associated with a potential separate CME feature (bulk) in the white-light imagery just ahead of the wider measurable portion of this CME. Due to some uncertainty caused by the lack of SOHO imagery, the two CMEs are treated together here as one. The arrival is seen on 2023-01-03 when B_total initially increased from 3nT to 10nT and was accompanied by an increase in density and speed at the arrival of the sheath.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-01-03T16:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-01-02T05:03Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-12-30 21:46
 - Time at C2: 2022-12-30 16:53
 - Radial speed: 811.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 31 deg
 - Eruption location: S14E03
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 649.30 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-01-02 05:03 (i.e. predicted transit time: 60.18 hours)
Lead Time: 73.52 hour(s)
Difference: 35.38 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-12-31T14:55Z
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